ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS NOW. A TRMM PASS AT 0721 UTC SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME BANDING STRUCTURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM. ONLY A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS...COUPLED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM 36-72 HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/5...BASED IN PART ON THE TRMM PASS. OLIVIA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SHOULD SOON BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS OLIVIA SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWS A DEEPER FLOW MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS APPARENTLY WANTS TO HAVE IT BOTH WAYS...SPLITTING OLIVIA INTO TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH GOES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAKER LOBE THAN LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. I AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT OLIVIA WILL FOLLOW NORMAN'S LEAD...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.6N 127.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Oct-2006 14:40:04 UTC