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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006
 
RECENT MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AS A BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
RANGE...30 TO 45 KT...IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT PROVIDE ANY CONCLUSIVE INDICATION THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED WINDS
AROUND 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THE STRONGER RETRIEVED WINDS IN THE CONVECTION ARE
BELIEVABLE.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST PERSISTS.

MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...AND SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HALT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...STRONG SHEAR...STABLE
AIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE FAIRLY
QUICKLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO SOON BEGIN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.  A SECOND
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION
NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT
THERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL
TRAVEL.  THE UKMET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE
GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE GFDL
FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 14.0N 127.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 126.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.5N 125.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 123.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
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