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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression NORMAN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 16   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MANZANILLO     34 13   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 197N 1046W 34 18   3(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 12 197N 1046W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 197N 1046W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 207N 1045W 34  4   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 24 207N 1045W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 207N 1045W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 209N 1042W 34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 36 209N 1042W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 209N 1042W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     20      20       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
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