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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression NORMAN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N 1163W 34  7   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 12 170N 1163W 50  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 170N 1163W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 173N 1151W 34  2   8(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 24 173N 1151W 50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 24 173N 1151W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 176N 1140W 34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 176N 1140W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 176N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 180N 1130W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 180N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 180N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     25      20      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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