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Tropical Depression NORMAN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT TRMM
AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO
HELP LOCATE THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST RECEIVED INDICATES
THAT IF THE CENTER IS NOT ALREADY ON THE COAST IT IS VERY CLOSE.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY 35 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT
SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  GIVEN THESE DATA NORMAN WILL
REMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MAIN
INHIBITOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS NORMAN'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK NORMAN SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE NORMAN
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
THEREAFTER... NORMAN SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES REMAIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT NORMAN STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 19.0N 104.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
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FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
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