ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION OF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO JUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND. CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7. ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE CENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 15-Oct-2006 08:55:03 UTC