ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR 12-18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BE DISSIPATED BY DAY 3. LACKING APPRECIABLE CONVECTION...NORMAN NOW APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THUS STEERED BY LOWER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/06. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.8N 117.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 02:35:03 UTC