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Tropical Depression NORMAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN UNABLE TO
GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FOR 12-18 HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN
DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BE DISSIPATED BY DAY 3. 
 
LACKING APPRECIABLE CONVECTION...NORMAN NOW APPEARS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW AND THUS STEERED BY LOWER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OR 075/06.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE
NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 16.8N 117.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 02:35:03 UTC