ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND FARTHER SEPARATED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT SHEARED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE CENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE BECOME WIDELY DISPERSED AND ARE RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CLASSIFICATIONS. LARGE SCALE MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL ALL SUGGEST A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/GFDL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3...WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT NORMAN WILL BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET...ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS INDICATE A DRIFT INCREASINGLY EASTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REFLECT A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING FLOW OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET CLUSTER...INDICATING A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.0N 117.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.8N 117.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 115.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 114.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Oct-2006 14:40:04 UTC