Tropical Storm NORMAN

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TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006
 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY
CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS
EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE
55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE
UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT
RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES.  WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE
PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY
SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS.  THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE
APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE
GFDL.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND
INDUCE WEAKENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6.  NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF
SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD
OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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