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Tropical Depression MIRIAM


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 209N 1141W 34 16   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 12 209N 1141W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 209N 1141W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 222N 1149W 34  1  10(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 24 222N 1149W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 222N 1149W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 244N 1160W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 244N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 244N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 267N 1164W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 267N 1164W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 267N 1164W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 305N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 305N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 305N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25      25      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN                                         
                                                                    
                                                                    
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