ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 199N 1137W 34 73 4(77) X(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 12 199N 1137W 50 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 199N 1137W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 207N 1139W 34 32 15(47) 2(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) 24 207N 1139W 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 24 207N 1139W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 215N 1145W 34 7 12(19) 6(25) 3(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) 36 215N 1145W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 215N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 225N 1153W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) 48 225N 1153W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 225N 1153W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 235N 1160W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 72 235N 1160W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 235N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1165W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 96 250N 1165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 35 30 30 25 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 14:45:03 UTC