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Tropical Storm MIRIAM


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 32   2(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   1(36)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 187N 1137W 34 31  16(47)   2(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 12 187N 1137W 50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 187N 1137W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 197N 1130W 34  4  22(26)   9(35)   3(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 24 197N 1130W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 197N 1130W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 209N 1125W 34  1   6( 7)  15(22)  10(32)   2(34)   1(35)   X(35)
 36 209N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 36 209N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 221N 1129W 34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  15(23)   6(29)   X(29)   1(30)
 48 221N 1129W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 221N 1129W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 235N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 72 235N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 235N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 255N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 96 255N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 255N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 275N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
120 275N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 275N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      40      35      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN