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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   3(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  7   2( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 183N 1135W 34 33  14(47)   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 12 183N 1135W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 183N 1135W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 193N 1127W 34  5  29(34)   9(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 193N 1127W 50  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 193N 1127W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 204N 1123W 34  1  13(14)  20(34)   7(41)   2(43)   X(43)   1(44)
 36 204N 1123W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 204N 1123W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 212N 1125W 34  X   6( 6)  18(24)   9(33)   5(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 48 212N 1125W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 212N 1125W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 230N 1140W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   1(21)
 72 230N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 72 230N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
 96 245N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 245N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 270N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
120 270N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 270N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      35      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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