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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E                                      
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
1200 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 12   9(21)   3(24)   X(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLA CLARION   50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 179N 1140W 34 34  12(46)   3(49)   X(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 12 179N 1140W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 179N 1140W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 189N 1132W 34  5  29(34)   9(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 189N 1132W 50  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 189N 1132W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 198N 1127W 34  1  15(16)  19(35)   4(39)   2(41)   1(42)   X(42)
 36 198N 1127W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 198N 1127W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 208N 1127W 34  X   6( 6)  16(22)   7(29)   5(34)   X(34)   1(35)
 48 208N 1127W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 208N 1127W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 225N 1135W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   1(20)
 72 225N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 225N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 240N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
 96 240N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 240N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 260N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
120 260N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 260N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      40      35      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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