ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 200 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006 MIRIAM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0100 UTC. A 0154 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A SINGLE 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE SINCE DECREASED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...MIRIAM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH... AROUND 010/05...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE HEADING AND SPEED FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THIS TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH INITIALIZED MIRIAM AS A DEEPER SYSTEM. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 19.9N 113.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 20.9N 114.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 19/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/0600Z 26.7N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 08:50:03 UTC