Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MIRIAM


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL 
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM 
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35
KT RESPECTIVELY. AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF
THESE ESTIMATES.

WHILE TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD JOG...CURRENT
MOTION IS 020/2. THE STORM IS STILL DRIFTING IN A GENERALLY
NORTHEAST DIRECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTAINING
BOTH TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM AND HURRICANE LANE. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN
THE GUIDANCE.

NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVEN THE GFDL MODEL...INITIALIZED WITH THE
STRONGEST CYCLONE OF ALL THE MODELS...FORECASTS ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. THE
DOMINANT NEGATIVE INTENSITY FACTOR IS INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE
MARITIME AIR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL  17/0300Z 18.4N 114.4W 40 KT
 12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W 40 KT 
 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W 40 KT 
 36HR VT 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W 45 KT 
 48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W 40 KT 
 72HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W 35 KT 
 96HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 
120HR VT 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$ FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART

NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 03:15:03 UTC