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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS MORNING...
WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT UNTIL
VISIBLE IMAGES PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE CENTER IS IN
RELATION TO THE CONVECTION.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION
ISLAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/3.  THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE.  AFTER THAT...LANE
SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING
SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM
COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THAT
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT OVER COLDER WATERS AND
WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM LANE INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT.  THE
SHEAR COULD DECREASE BY 60 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME.  BY 120 HR...THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 17.8N 114.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 14:50:03 UTC