ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LORETO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 3 11(14) 5(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) HUATABAMPO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 18 27(45) 2(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LOS MOCHIS 50 2 9(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULICAN 34 39 11(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CULICAN 50 5 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CULICAN 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 248N 1074W 34 96 2(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 248N 1074W 50 81 6(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 248N 1074W 64 46 12(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 24 259N 1076W 34 60 25(85) 2(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 24 259N 1076W 50 15 30(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 24 259N 1076W 64 3 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 36 268N 1079W 34 11 38(49) 5(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 36 268N 1079W 50 2 11(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 36 268N 1079W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 278N 1082W 34 3 13(16) 7(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 48 278N 1082W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 278N 1082W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90 60 35 25 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 14:50:03 UTC