Tropical Storm LANE
ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 27(29) 27(56) 8(64) 6(70) 2(72) 1(73)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) 7(24) 4(28) 1(29) 1(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 30(32) 29(61) 8(69) 6(75) 1(76) 1(77)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 4(32) 1(33) 1(34)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 1(15)
LA PAZ 34 1 9(10) 28(38) 13(51) 8(59) 4(63) 3(66)
LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 7(23) 2(25) 1(26)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 12(27) 6(33) 5(38)
LORETO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 4(24)
GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 13(33) 8(41) 3(44)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 16(38) 11(49) 7(56) 2(58)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 4(21) 1(22)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
CULICAN 34 1 11(12) 31(43) 13(56) 10(66) 4(70) 2(72)
CULICAN 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 8(33) 3(36) 1(37)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19)
MAZATLAN 34 7 32(39) 11(50) 2(52) 3(55) 1(56) X(56)
MAZATLAN 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14)
MAZATLAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 29 8(37) 2(39) 1(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43)
SAN BLAS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 42 3(45) 1(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12)
MANZANILLO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 78 9(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 24 16(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 6 9(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 209N 1070W 34 93 4(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 209N 1070W 50 59 15(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
12 209N 1070W 64 30 13(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 1(45)
24 223N 1080W 34 21 62(83) 7(90) 2(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93)
24 223N 1080W 50 2 47(49) 10(59) 2(61) 2(63) X(63) 1(64)
24 223N 1080W 64 X 23(23) 9(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36)
36 234N 1088W 34 3 42(45) 28(73) 6(79) 4(83) 1(84) 1(85)
36 234N 1088W 50 X 12(12) 26(38) 7(45) 3(48) 1(49) 1(50)
36 234N 1088W 64 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28)
48 243N 1090W 34 2 19(21) 34(55) 11(66) 7(73) 3(76) 1(77)
48 243N 1090W 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 11(32) 7(39) 2(41) 1(42)
48 243N 1090W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23)
72 255N 1090W 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 16(44) 12(56) 5(61) 2(63)
72 255N 1090W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 3(24) 1(25)
72 255N 1090W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12)
96 265N 1090W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 13(25) 12(37) 7(44) 3(47)
96 265N 1090W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 2(13)
96 265N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
120 280N 1085W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 2(21)
120 280N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 280N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 80 85 85 85 45 25
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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