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Tropical Storm LANE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006               
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   4( 5)  23(28)  23(51)  16(67)   2(69)   1(70)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  13(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   4( 5)  22(27)  24(51)  16(67)   2(69)   1(70)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  14(32)   X(32)   1(33)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  19(29)  22(51)   4(55)   1(56)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   2(21)   X(21)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   7(29)   1(30)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   5(15)   2(17)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   6(24)   1(25)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  17(27)   4(31)   X(31)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  13(22)  20(42)   3(45)   1(46)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2   6( 8)  14(22)   8(30)   5(35)   X(35)   1(36)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  5  17(22)   8(30)   3(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SAN BLAS       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34 22  19(41)   4(45)   2(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
P VALLARTA     50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 57   3(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34 37   3(40)   2(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
L CARDENAS     34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   4(20)   1(21)   1(22)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  6  37(43)  17(60)   3(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   7( 7)  10(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 188N 1062W 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 188N 1062W 50 51  18(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 12 188N 1062W 64 15  12(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
 24 201N 1073W 34 30  54(84)   7(91)   1(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 201N 1073W 50  2  42(44)  11(55)   2(57)   1(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 24 201N 1073W 64  X  19(19)   8(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 36 213N 1083W 34  4  37(41)  32(73)   9(82)   4(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 213N 1083W 50  X   8( 8)  28(36)   9(45)   3(48)   X(48)   1(49)
 36 213N 1083W 64  X   2( 2)  14(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 223N 1093W 34  2   9(11)  33(44)  21(65)   9(74)   1(75)   1(76)
 48 223N 1093W 50  X   1( 1)  12(13)  16(29)   9(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 48 223N 1093W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 
 72 245N 1105W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  15(22)  25(47)   4(51)   1(52)
 72 245N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 72 245N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 260N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)   6(31)   2(33)
 96 260N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 96 260N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 270N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   3(24)
120 270N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
120 270N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      85      70      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 20:45:03 UTC