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Tropical Storm LANE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006               
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  17(27)  22(49)   6(55)   2(57)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   2(20)   1(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  15(24)  23(47)   6(53)   2(55)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   4(20)   X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  23(33)   8(41)   2(43)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)   4(24)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)   2(16)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   7(22)   1(23)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  19(26)   6(32)   2(34)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   8(27)   2(29)   X(29)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  5  12(17)   9(26)   4(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34 22  16(38)   8(46)   2(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)
P VALLARTA     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 67   5(72)   2(74)   1(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  4   5( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MANZANILLO     34 61   4(65)   1(66)   1(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
MANZANILLO     50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34 10   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   8(20)   6(26)   1(27)   2(29)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  6  18(24)  16(40)   7(47)   5(52)   1(53)   X(53)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 182N 1054W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 182N 1054W 50 40  14(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 12 182N 1054W 64  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 24 190N 1066W 34 71  20(91)   2(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 190N 1066W 50  4  40(44)   8(52)   2(54)   1(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 24 190N 1066W 64  X  13(13)   4(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 36 199N 1076W 34 19  42(61)  17(78)   6(84)   2(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 36 199N 1076W 50  X  12(12)  23(35)   8(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 36 199N 1076W 64  X   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 48 209N 1086W 34  3  18(21)  29(50)  16(66)   9(75)   1(76)   X(76)
 48 209N 1086W 50  X   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)   8(34)   1(35)   1(36)
 48 209N 1086W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 
 72 230N 1100W 34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  15(24)  23(47)   6(53)   2(55)
 72 230N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   3(19)   1(20)
 72 230N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
 
 96 245N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  19(23)   9(32)   4(36)
 96 245N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 96 245N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 265N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   6(20)
120 265N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
120 265N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     65      70      75      75      65      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 14:35:03 UTC