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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006               
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   6(29)   2(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  14(20)   7(27)   1(28)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)   1(18)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   9(25)   4(29)   1(30)   X(30)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  20(21)  15(36)   5(41)   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2  19(21)   9(30)   4(34)   2(36)   1(37)   X(37)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  8   3(11)   2(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  19(30)   7(37)   2(39)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   7(30)   1(31)   X(31)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 173N 1036W 34 46  19(65)   2(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 12 173N 1036W 50  5   5(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 173N 1036W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 180N 1050W 34  5  48(53)  13(66)   3(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 180N 1050W 50  X  14(14)   9(23)   1(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 24 180N 1050W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 188N 1065W 34  1  15(16)  36(52)  12(64)   5(69)   1(70)   X(70)
 36 188N 1065W 50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   9(26)   2(28)   1(29)   X(29)
 36 188N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 48 195N 1080W 34  X   3( 3)  24(27)  24(51)  13(64)   3(67)   X(67)
 48 195N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   8(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 48 195N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
 
 72 205N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)  27(43)   9(52)   2(54)
 72 205N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 72 205N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 220N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  15(30)   4(34)
 96 220N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 96 220N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 245N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)
120 245N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 245N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     50      60      70      75      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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