Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2006
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 298 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 102.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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