ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE EYE OF LANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 110 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL JUST AFTER LANDFALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 108 KT...ALTHOUGH THE REDUCTIONS FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE DROP ARE NOT AVAILABLE. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT LANE MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE IS NOW WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS LANE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 48-72 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 350/9. LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF OVER WATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 24.4N 107.2W 105 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 17/0600Z 25.6N 107.4W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1800Z 26.8N 107.6W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0600Z 27.8N 107.7W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 28.8N 107.8W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 20:40:03 UTC