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Tropical Storm LANE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

A 0024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE
FEATURE...AND THAT LANE HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET AT 50 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
SHIPS...WHICH DOES NOT WEAKEN LANE AS RAPIDLY AS THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES.  CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF LAND INTERACTION DOES NOT
OCCUR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/5...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A BIT SLOWER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD
REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE
MORE NORTHWARD...AROUND MID PERIOD.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.4N 105.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W    85 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    65 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER 
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 03:10:03 UTC