ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CENTER AND RADAR FROM ACAPULCO SHOWS A BROAD ROTATION WITHIN THESE BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE INITIALLY INTENSITY. SHIP V2HZ REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT... BUT THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION AS A WHOLE. HOWEVER IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY LARGE WIND FIELD... AND REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHWEST MEXICO. WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO ARE QUITE WARM... AND... COMBINED WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST... INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID. SHIPS SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFDL HAS A MUCH SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE... WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPECT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS... IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE UKMET SEEMS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAR TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE RIDGING OVER MEXICO WHILE THE GFS IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE... AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Sep-2006 21:00:03 UTC