Tropical Storm KRISTY

ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 175N 1164W 34 84   8(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 175N 1164W 50 44  16(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 12 175N 1164W 64 12   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 24 182N 1177W 34 10  57(67)  11(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 24 182N 1177W 50  1  30(31)  10(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 182N 1177W 64  X  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 36 189N 1190W 34  1  24(25)  35(60)   7(67)   3(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 36 189N 1190W 50  X   4( 4)  21(25)   6(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 189N 1190W 64  X   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 48 195N 1205W 34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  18(48)   9(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 48 195N 1205W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 48 195N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 200N 1230W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  11(14)  17(31)   4(35)   1(36)
 72 200N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 72 200N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 195N 1250W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  12(14)   5(19)   1(20)
 96 195N 1250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 96 195N 1250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 190N 1270W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
120 190N 1270W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 190N 1270W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      70      65      55      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN