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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006               
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  9   7(16)   3(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1158W 34 88   6(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 172N 1158W 50 45  15(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 12 172N 1158W 64 12   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 24 178N 1170W 34 16  54(70)  11(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 178N 1170W 50  3  32(35)  10(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 24 178N 1170W 64  X  12(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 36 185N 1185W 34  1  22(23)  38(61)   8(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 36 185N 1185W 50  X   4( 4)  22(26)   7(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 36 185N 1185W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 48 192N 1200W 34  1   3( 4)  26(30)  18(48)   9(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 48 192N 1200W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 48 192N 1200W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 200N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  19(29)   4(33)   1(34)
 72 200N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 72 200N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 200N 1250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   2(20)
 96 200N 1250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 200N 1250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 200N 1270W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
120 200N 1270W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
120 200N 1270W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      70      65      55      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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