Tropical Depression KRISTY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT KRISTY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DEPRESSION STRENGTH...AND COULD POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
SUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CARBON COPY OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW LATE
IN THE PERIOD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW TO MID
LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFS SHALLOW BAM SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT AROUND
MID PERIOD AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NORTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 3.  THEREAFTER....MODELS BUILD THE
RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED
AROUND 36-48 HR PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH DAY 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 16.4N 130.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 131.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.4N 133.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N 134.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
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