Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006

THE EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAVE MORPHED INTO
BANDS... GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TWO HOOKING-TYPE
BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING... AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THIS MIGHT BE A CONSERVATIVE
FIGURE IF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION
THAN WE THINK.  THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS APPEARS TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS...
STABLE AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR.  GIVEN
THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE... A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS LIKELY... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS
THIS GENERAL IDEA AND WAS THE MAIN TOOL FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF KRISTY.  SMALL SYSTEMS ARE
SOMEWHAT NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 280/10...
THOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS EVEN FASTER.  THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER KRISTY WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE
RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO HEAD
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMIDGE TO THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN
CONVECTION... THEN MODIFIED TO ADJUST FOR TYPICAL MOTION
ASYMMETRIES.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 16.7N 122.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
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