ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 JUST WHEN WE THINK THAT KRISTY IS DONE FOR... A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND KRISTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM... AGAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR... RELAXING SOMEWHAT DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST... BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS PRETTY MARGINAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYER IS TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AND SHIPS DIAGNOSES RATHER DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... SSTS STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 26C FOR THE PERIOD... AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE... KRISTY ISN'T EXPECT TO FLOURISH BUT... UNFORTUNATELY... DISSIPATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT 5 DAYS... AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 275/7. A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH KRISTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER RATE FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO FOLLOW A WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS.. BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 121.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 16.7N 123.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.1N 125.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 131.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 134.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC