ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 1200Z WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -70 C. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 180/2 SIGNALS AN EARLIER-THAN-FORECAST TURN TO THE WEST AND SINCE THE CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...WE EXPECT KRISTY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON MODERATE SHEAR IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE GFDL MODEL. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS...INTENSIFYING THE TRADE EASTERLIES...AND DRIVING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS GFDL UKMET ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SPEED WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW AND GFDL AND GFS FAST. OUR TRACK MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS BUT IS SHADED TOWARDS THE UKMET/ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 17.7N 118.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC