ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 KRISTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION IN ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND...WITH CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE AIR...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST KRISTY COULD SURVIVE LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE. KRISTY IS MOVING AT 130/2. OUR TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS MOTION AND THEN TURNS KRISTY SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WEAKENS. THE REMNANTS OF KRISTY...IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED AT 36 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL UKMET AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXCEPT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 18.0N 117.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC