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Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
 
KRISTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION IN
ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...ALBEIT
WEAK...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND...WITH CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE AIR...THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. 
HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST KRISTY COULD SURVIVE
LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
KRISTY IS MOVING AT 130/2. OUR TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS MOTION
AND THEN TURNS KRISTY SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WEAKENS.  THE REMNANTS OF
KRISTY...IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED AT 36 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE
EASTERLY TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFDL UKMET AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
ABOVE SCENARIO EXCEPT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 18.0N 117.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC