ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN LACKING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 100/3...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL SHOW A SHALLOW VORTEX MOVING WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A RETROGRADING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KRISTY. IF KRISTY HANGS ON AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SWIRL WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHING EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 18.3N 118.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC