Hurricane KRISTY

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HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NICE EYEWALL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS
STILL NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE COOLER WATERS...STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...AND APPROACHING EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE JOHN INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MUCH
OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AHEAD OF JOHN...FORCING KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOON-LIKE FLOW...OR EVEN EASTWARD AGAIN
IF IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN.  IN WHAT SHOULD
BE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE TRACK OF KRISTY WILL TURN LARGELY ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ANTICIPATES THAT KRISTY WILL BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS
AND WOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 18.4N 117.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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