ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP... HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM INITIALLY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS. INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC