Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM
1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...
HOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE
BEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. 
ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48
HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN
2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES
SEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS
THE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC