ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF AN WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/4. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH HURRICANE JOHN COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE WITH THE DEEP BAM MODEL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH JOHN...GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0500Z 16.2N 114.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W 40 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC