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Tropical Depression TWELVE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING
SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE 26C
ISOTHERM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING.  
 
GIVEN THE LACK OF AN WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/4.  GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH
HURRICANE JOHN COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.  ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF
THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 48
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE
WITH THE DEEP BAM MODEL.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
JOHN...GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0500Z 16.2N 114.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W    40 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
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