ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P PENASCO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 280N 1133W 34 30 7(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 12 280N 1133W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 280N 1133W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 289N 1141W 34 5 14(19) 3(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 24 289N 1141W 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 289N 1141W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 298N 1151W 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 36 298N 1151W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 298N 1151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 302N 1160W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 48 302N 1160W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 302N 1160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 305N 1180W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 305N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 305N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 25 20 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC