ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X 10(10) 16(26) 2(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) P ABREOJOS 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LA PAZ 50 73 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LA PAZ 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LORETO 34 7 59(66) 8(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LORETO 50 1 26(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LORETO 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 2 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CULICAN 34 14 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 250N 1108W 34 76 13(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 12 250N 1108W 50 37 13(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 12 250N 1108W 64 10 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 24 261N 1118W 34 3 60(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) 24 261N 1118W 50 1 21(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 24 261N 1118W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 272N 1128W 34 1 20(21) 25(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) 36 272N 1128W 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 36 272N 1128W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 282N 1140W 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) 48 282N 1140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 282N 1140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 297N 1163W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 72 297N 1163W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 297N 1163W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 305N 1180W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 305N 1180W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 305N 1180W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75 55 35 25 20 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC