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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95   
KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
S CATALINA IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
TIJUANA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  12(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14   3(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JOSE CABO  50 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  5   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34 73  10(83)   1(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
LA PAZ         50 37  12(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
LA PAZ         64 16   5(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
LORETO         34  1  36(37)  28(65)   5(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
LORETO         50  X  12(12)  18(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
LORETO         64  X   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)   1(21)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  15(30)   2(32)   X(32)   1(33)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BAHIA KINO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   5( 5)  26(31)  10(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GUAYMAS        50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GUAYMAS        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  1  20(21)  13(34)   4(38)   X(38)   X(38)   1(39)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34 10  19(29)   5(34)   3(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
LOS MOCHIS     50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CULICAN        34 55   6(61)   1(62)   1(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)
CULICAN        50 10   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
CULICAN        64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 244N 1101W 34 83   9(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 244N 1101W 50 53  14(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 12 244N 1101W 64 37  11(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 24 255N 1109W 34 11  54(65)  11(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 24 255N 1109W 50  2  31(33)   9(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 255N 1109W 64  1  16(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 36 267N 1118W 34  1  17(18)  35(53)   9(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 36 267N 1118W 50  X   4( 4)  17(21)   6(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 267N 1118W 64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 48 275N 1130W 34  X   3( 3)  24(27)  15(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 48 275N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 275N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 290N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 72 290N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 290N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 300N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 96 300N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 300N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 305N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
120 305N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 305N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     75      55      35      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC