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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90   
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)  13(27)   2(29)   X(29)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 10  66(76)  10(86)   2(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  1  35(36)  17(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X  14(14)  14(28)   3(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 11  67(78)  11(89)   2(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  1  40(41)  15(56)   4(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X  17(17)  15(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
LA PAZ         34  2  39(41)  28(69)   8(77)   3(80)   X(80)   X(80)
LA PAZ         50  X   7( 7)  22(29)   9(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
LA PAZ         64  X   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
LORETO         34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  14(29)   6(35)   1(36)   X(36)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  1   6( 7)  12(19)   5(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  2  24(26)  16(42)   4(46)   3(49)   X(49)   X(49)
CULICAN        50  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34 14   8(22)   3(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
SAN BLAS       34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
P VALLARTA     34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 218N 1080W 34 97   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 218N 1080W 50 74  11(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 218N 1080W 64 38  19(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
 24 228N 1094W 34 27  59(86)   5(91)   2(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 228N 1094W 50  2  50(52)  10(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 24 228N 1094W 64  1  25(26)  10(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 235N 1107W 34  2  43(45)  28(73)   8(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 235N 1107W 50  X  11(11)  24(35)   8(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 235N 1107W 64  X   4( 4)  14(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 241N 1122W 34  1   8( 9)  29(38)  19(57)  10(67)   1(68)   X(68)
 48 241N 1122W 50  X   1( 1)  11(12)  15(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 48 241N 1122W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 247N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  21(39)   6(45)   1(46)
 72 247N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 247N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 250N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   2(18)
 96 250N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 96 250N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 250N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
120 250N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 250N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     95      90      85      65      55      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC