Hurricane JOHN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 11(35) 1(36)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 1(19)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) X(21)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) 2(35) X(35)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 27(43) 9(52) 1(53) X(53)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 23(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 1 17(18) 22(40) 3(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46)
L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 21(23) 12(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ACAPULCO 34 9 13(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ACAPULCO 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 8(38) X(38)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 23(34) 4(38) X(38)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 148N 1004W 34 96 2(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 148N 1004W 50 73 11(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 148N 1004W 64 41 16(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
24 156N 1022W 34 12 73(85) 8(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 156N 1022W 50 1 54(55) 13(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
24 156N 1022W 64 X 30(30) 11(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
36 167N 1043W 34 1 18(19) 55(74) 11(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87)
36 167N 1043W 50 X 3( 3) 41(44) 13(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60)
36 167N 1043W 64 X 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
48 182N 1062W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 38(63) 16(79) 1(80) X(80)
48 182N 1062W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 14(48) 1(49) X(49)
48 182N 1062W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26)
72 205N 1100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 43(48) 10(58) 1(59)
72 205N 1100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) X(27)
72 205N 1100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
96 210N 1125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 2(40)
96 210N 1125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
96 210N 1125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
120 215N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17)
120 215N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
120 215N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85 95 105 105 100 85 65
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
NNNN
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