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Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)   3(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   2(24)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   1(20)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)   2(30)   1(31)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  25(45)   2(47)   X(47)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)  21(43)   1(44)   X(44)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  18(40)   6(46)   X(46)   X(46)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   3( 4)  22(26)  11(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1  13(14)  13(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
ACAPULCO       50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P MALDONADO    34  3  10(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
P ANGEL        34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATULCO       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  16(32)   1(33)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   6(31)   1(32)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 142N  989W 34 91   5(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 142N  989W 50 55  16(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 12 142N  989W 64 37  14(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 148N 1005W 34 11  69(80)  10(90)   X(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 148N 1005W 50  1  43(44)  15(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 24 148N 1005W 64  1  23(24)  12(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 157N 1024W 34  1  17(18)  52(70)  13(83)   2(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 36 157N 1024W 50  X   3( 3)  35(38)  14(52)   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 157N 1024W 64  X   1( 1)  18(19)   9(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 48 169N 1044W 34  X   1( 1)  23(24)  39(63)  15(78)   1(79)   X(79)
 48 169N 1044W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)  14(46)   1(47)   X(47)
 48 169N 1044W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 
 
 72 195N 1083W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  43(47)  11(58)   2(60)
 72 195N 1083W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   7(27)   X(27)
 72 195N 1083W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   4(14)   X(14)
 
 
 96 210N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  22(33)   3(36)
 96 210N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)
 96 210N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 215N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
120 215N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
120 215N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     85      95     105     100      85      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC