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Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA                                                 
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2...CORRECTED           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006                                            
                   
...NAME OF JOHN ADDED ABOVE...
                                                 
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  18(28)   2(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  16(25)   2(27)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)   X(18)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   3(28)   X(28)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  31(42)   2(44)   X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  25(38)   2(40)   X(40)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  20(34)   8(42)   X(42)   X(42)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  15(34)   4(38)   X(38)   1(39)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1  11(12)  15(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P MALDONADO    34  5  16(21)   5(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
P ANGEL        34 13   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
HUATULCO       34 10   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  16(33)   1(34)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   6(29)   1(30)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 137N  979W 34 89   5(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 137N  979W 50 15  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 12 137N  979W 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 141N  997W 34 18  58(76)  10(86)   1(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 141N  997W 50  X  28(28)  13(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 141N  997W 64  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 150N 1016W 34  1  21(22)  46(68)  12(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 150N 1016W 50  X   2( 2)  25(27)  13(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 150N 1016W 64  X   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 48 162N 1037W 34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  36(58)  17(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 48 162N 1037W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  13(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 48 162N 1037W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 195N 1085W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  43(45)  13(58)   1(59)
 72 195N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   8(25)   1(26)
 72 195N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
 
 96 215N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  24(33)   3(36)
 96 215N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)
 96 215N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 225N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)
120 225N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
120 225N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     60      70      80      90      85      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC