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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC 
   COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...STRONG RAIN BANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN...
   COLIMA...AND JALISCO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS MARIAS.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.  

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAS SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM 
SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS.  THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
NNNN



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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC