Hurricane JOHN

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...EYE OF JOHN A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.  THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR LATITUDE 22.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN A FEW HOURS.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...22.8 N...109.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN