Hurricane JOHN

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...DANGEROUS JOHN APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON
THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO.
 
JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  ON THIS
TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA.  THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 
 
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.0 N...108.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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